Well, the warmer weather is back this week and so is the wind. Bay beaches should have plenty of usable windows, but conditions look more mixed once the breeze lifts, and there is a cooler change forecast for Thursday 22/01/26. By the weekend, temperatures rise again, with 36°C forecast at Frankston South on Saturday 24/01/26.
Top issues to plan around (priority order):
- Strong wind conditions on the water, including a Strong Wind Warning for Port Phillip on Monday 19/01/26 (and for the Central Coast coastal waters).
- Very High to Extreme UV early week (sun protection recommended for extended periods).
- Heat building late week, with 36°C forecast at Frankston South on Saturday 24/01/26.
Takeaway: Families, weak swimmers, and paddlers should plan around wind, especially early week. Surf beaches remain higher-risk during strong winds and larger seas.
Alerts and safety notices
Marine wind conditions (BOM)
- Current status: Strong Wind Warning for Port Phillip on Monday 19/01/26.
- Also relevant: Strong Wind Warning for Central Coast coastal waters (Cape Otway to Wilsons Promontory) on Monday 19/01/26, with seas forecast 2 to 3 metres.
- Western Port: A Strong Wind Warning is listed for Sunday 18/01/26; Monday’s Western Port forecast remains breezy on the water.
- Practical advice: If you are using inflatables, SUPs, kayaks, or small boats, check the latest BOM marine forecast before launching and reassess plans if winds strengthen.
Water quality (EPA Victoria Beach Report guidance)
- Current status: This report does not list specific beach ratings. EPA publishes daily forecasts and advises that stormwater pollution risk can increase during and after rain.
- Practical advice: Check the EPA Beach Report before travelling, and avoid swimming near drains and creek mouths if there has been recent rain or visible discharge.
Weather and UV outlook (BOM)
Frankston (Frankston South)
Forecast issued by BOM at 5:07pm AEDT, Sunday 18/01/26.
- Mon 19/01/26: 15–30°C, mostly sunny. Rain chance 5%. UV 10 (Very High), sun protection 9:20am–5:30pm.
- Tue 20/01/26: 15–30°C, mostly sunny. Rain chance 20%. UV 11 (Extreme), sun protection 9:20am–5:40pm.
- Wed 21/01/26: 15–28°C, sunny. Rain chance 5%. UV 11 (Extreme), sun protection 9:10am–5:40pm.
- Thu 22/01/26: 14–23°C, partly cloudy. Rain chance 20%.
- Fri 23/01/26: 13–29°C, partly cloudy. Rain chance 10%.
- Sat 24/01/26: 15–36°C, sunny. Rain chance 20%.
Mornington Peninsula (Flinders)
Forecast current as at Sunday 18/01/26.
- Mon 19/01/26: 15–28°C, mostly sunny. Rain chance 5%. Winds easterly 30–45 km/h. UV 10 (Very High), sun protection 9:20am–5:30pm.
- Tue 20/01/26: 15–28°C, mostly sunny. Rain chance 20% (slight shower and thunderstorm chance). UV 11 (Extreme), sun protection 9:20am–5:40pm.
- Wed 21/01/26: 15–25°C, sunny. Rain chance 5%. UV 11 (Extreme), sun protection 9:10am–5:40pm.
- Thu 22/01/26: 14–21°C, partly cloudy. Rain chance 20%.
- Fri 23/01/26: 14–25°C, partly cloudy. Rain chance 10%.
- Sat 24/01/26: 15–33°C, mostly sunny. Rain chance 20%.
Surf and water hazards to keep in mind
- Wind warnings mean rougher water conditions: Port Phillip has a Strong Wind Warning for Monday 19/01/26, and the Central Coast coastal waters list 2 to 3 metre seas.
- Gusts can exceed forecast winds: BOM notes gusts can be significantly stronger than average forecast winds, especially in squalls and thunderstorms.
- Thunderstorm risk early week (mainly Tue 20/01/26): Local forecasts include a thunderstorm chance. Conditions can shift quickly.
- If there is rain, avoid drains and creek mouths: EPA forecasts focus on stormwater pollution risk during and after rainfall.
Patrols and beach access
- Patrol availability varies by beach and by day. Check BeachSafe before travelling.
- BeachSafe lists Frankston (Karingal) as a general hazard rating 3/10, and shows lifeguards patrolling 11:00am–7:00pm on listed days.
- Frankston Life Saving Club has advised lifeguards patrol 11:00am–7:00pm daily (as per its public post).
- Always swim between the red and yellow flags.
Before you go checklist
- Check BOM forecasts and marine warnings before boating, paddling, or inflatables.
- Plan for Very High to Extreme UV early week: shade, hat, water, sunscreen reapplication.
- Choose a patrolled beach and swim between the flags.
- Supervise children closely and keep non-swimmers within arm’s reach.
- Avoid swimming near drains and creek mouths after rain and check EPA guidance.
- On Saturday 24/01/26, consider earlier beach times due to forecast heat, and take breaks in shade.
Sources and transparency
- Bureau of Meteorology (forecast + UV): Frankston South, Flinders
- Bureau of Meteorology (marine): Port Phillip Local Waters, Western Port Local Waters, Central Coast coastal waters
- EPA Victoria: Beach Report program and forecast ratings guidance
- BeachSafe (patrol lookup and hazard info)
- Frankston Life Saving Club (public patrol information)
Conditions can change quickly. If you notice a hazard, include the beach name, time, and what you observed and send it through to STPL News.
